# SDEs and Monte Carlo in Octave Financial

This post is a tutorial on my fist major contribution as maintainer of GNU Octave financial package: a framework to simulate stochastic differential equations (SDEs) of the form

\[dX_t = F(t, X_t) dt + G(t, X_t) dW_t\]where *W* is a standard *n*-dimensional Wiener process.

To follow along with the examples in this post youโll need a copy of GNU Octave and the Financial package. See the release announcement post for installation instructions.

## A one dimensional example: pricing a European call

A classic problem in finance is that of pricing a European call option. The price of a European call option with strike price *K* and expiry time *T* years from now is given by

In the celebrated Black-Scholes framework, the functions *F* and *G* which parameterize the SDE are taken to be *F*(*t*, *X _{t}*) = (

*r*- ๐ฟ)

*X*and

_{t}*G*(

*t*,

*X*) = ๐

_{t}*X*where

_{t}*r*, ๐ฟ, and ๐ are the per-annum interest, dividend, and volatility rates of the stock

*X*. In other words,

When *F* and *G* are linear functions of the state variable (as they are in this case), the SDE is called a Geometric Brownian Motion.

Approximating the above expectation using a sample mean is referred to as *Monte Carlo integration* or *Monte Carlo simulation*. Though the Black-Scholes pricing problem happens to be one in which a closed-form solution is known, as an expository example, letโs perform Monte Carlo integration to approximate it using an SDE simulation:

```
% Test parameters
X_0 = 100.; K = 100.; r = 0.04; delta = 0.01; sigma = 0.2; T = 1.;
Simulations = 1e6; Timesteps = 10;
SDE = gbm (r - delta, sigma, "StartState", X_0);
[Paths, ~, ~] = simByEuler (SDE, 1, "DeltaTime", T, "NTRIALS", Simulations, "NSTEPS", Timesteps, "Antithetic", true);
% Monte Carlo price
CallPrice_MC = exp (-r * T) * mean (max (Paths(end, 1, :) - K, 0.));
% Compare with the exact answer (Black-Scholes formula): 9.3197
```

The `gbm`

function is used to generate an object describing geometric Brownian motion (GBM). Under the hood, it invokes the `sde`

constructor, which is capable of constructing more general SDEs.

## Timing

The GNU Octave financial implementation uses broadcasting to speed up computation. Here is a speed comparison of the above with the MATLAB Financial Toolbox, under a varying number of timesteps:

Timesteps |
MATLAB Financial Toolbox (secs.) |
GNU Octave financial package (secs.) |
---|---|---|

16 | 0.543231 | 0.048691 |

32 | 1.053423 | 0.064110 |

64 | 2.167072 | 0.097092 |

128 | 4.191894 | 0.162552 |

256 | 8.361655 | 0.294098 |

512 | 16.609718 | 0.568558 |

1024 | 32.839757 | 1.136864 |

While both implementations scale more-or-less linearly, the GNU Octave financial package implementation greatly outperforms its MATLAB counterpart.

## A two dimensional example: pricing a European basket call

Consider now the basket call pricing problem

\[\mathbb{E}\left[ e^{-rT} \max\{\max\{X_T^1, X_T^2\} - K, 0\} \right]\]involving two stocks *X ^{1}* and

*X*which follow the SDEs

^{2}To make matters more interesting, we also assume a correlation between the coordinates of the Wiener process:

\[dW_t^1 dW_t^2 = \rho dt.\]Sample code for this example is below:

```
% Test parameters
X1_0 = 40.; X2_0 = 40.; K = 40.; r = 0.05; delta1 = 0.; delta2 = 0.; sigma1 = 0.5; sigma2 = 0.5; T = 0.25; rho = 0.3;
Simulations = 1e5; Timesteps = 10;
SDE = gbm ([r-delta1 0.; 0. r-delta2], [sigma1 0.; 0. sigma2], "StartState", [X1_0; X2_0], "Correlation", [1 rho; rho 1]);
[Paths, ~, ~] = simulate (SDE, 1, "DeltaTime", T, "NTRIALS", Simulations, "NSTEPS", Timesteps, "Antithetic", true);
Max_Xi_T = max (Paths(end, :, :));
BasketCallPrice_MC = exp (-r * T) * mean (max (Max_Xi_T - K, 0.));
% Compare with the exact answer (Stulz 1982): 6.8477
```